Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2015

Overview The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia’s key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in June 2015.

Farmer/stakeholder implications The Agricultural commodities report provides high quality and timely information that supports higher farm gate returns through informed decision making by primary producers.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to around $57.1 billion, following an estimated increase of 4 per cent to $52.8 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $49.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 11 per cent in 2015-16 to $29.1 billion following an estimated increase of 15 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected increases in the farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool. • The forecast increases in farmgate prices are expected to more than offset a forecast decline of 4 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16, which mainly reflects an assumption of more favourable seasonal conditions in the latter half of 2015-16 leading to reduced slaughter as a result of herd and flock rebuilding. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2015-16 to $28.1 billion. This reflects an expected increase of 5 per cent in the volume index of crop production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $43.4 billion in 2015-16, following a rise of 6 per cent to an estimated $43.5 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, export earnings from farm commodities in 2015-16 would be around 14 per cent higher than the average of $38.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • These forecast increases are expected to be offset by forecast falls in export earnings from beef and veal (down 3 per cent to $8.6 billion), dairy (4 per cent to $2.4 billion), lamb (1 per cent to $1.7 billion), sugar (2 per cent to $1.4 billion), live feeder/slaughter cattle (8 per cent to $1.1 billion), cotton (33 per cent to $1.0 billion) and mutton (13 per cent to $0.7 billion). • Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 11 per cent to around $1.6 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent to $1.4 billion in 2014-15. • The index of unit returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2015–16, following an estimated rise of 6 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of an assumed decline in the Australian exchange rate, especially against the US dollar. • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of beef and veal, wool, wine, lamb, canola, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, chickpeas and mutton are forecast to increase in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat, barley, sugar, cotton and dairy products are forecast to decline.